At this point, this is just a point of likelihood theory Because of the replacement for the (1), we have: That it exemplory instance of Bayes’ Theorem deals with the easy iМ‡mmagrasyon evliМ‡liМ‡ДџiМ‡ circumstances in which you have two hypotheses H and you can J which might be mutually private and you can as one exhaustive, and in which one is in search of \(\Pr(H \middle Elizabeth)\), which is, the possibility you to definitely H is true given proof E. Exactly what so it illustration of Bayes’ Theorem really does is bring one which have a means of figuring you to possibilities, provided that one knows, firstly, \(\Pr(H)\) and you may \(\Pr(J)\)-that is, this new a beneficial priori analytical possibilities of \(H\) and you may \(J\)-and just have, 2nd, \(\Pr(Age \middle H)\) and you can \(\Pr(Age \middle J)\)-which is, the analytical likelihood of \(E\) considering, correspondingly, simply \(H\) and just \(J\). But now Draper raises a few substantive claims. The foremost is the a great priori odds of the latest theory out-of indifference is not lower than the fresh an excellent priori probability of theism, so you will find Draper’s 2nd substantive allege is the fact that combination off offres on satisfaction and you will discomfort that Draper relates, and you will that is depicted because of the \(O\)’ is more apt to be genuine in the event the hypothesis regarding indifference holds true than just if the theism is true. So we enjoys However, provided \(\Pr(T)\) and you may \(\Pr(O \mid T)\) commonly equal to no-which is surely affordable-(5) and you will (6) is rewritten given that Therefore we have the result you to, because of the facts about satisfaction and pain described by the \(O\)’, theism is far more apt to be incorrect rather than be correct. Next, it might even be debated your substantive site introduced during the (5)-which is, \(\Pr(HI) \ge \Pr(T)\)- is actually offered to concern There are many different products where that you are going to address which conflict. Basic, it will be contended that expectation the theory away from indifference is actually rationally incompatible with theism is not obviously true.